Sunday 11 October 2009

Prosperity without growth?

Professor Tim Jackson of the Sustainable Development Commission has made the case that we have been living the myth of economic growth. This myth has led to widening income inequality, stagnated our wellbeing and is leading us to environmental catastrophe. He suggests that we need to recalibrate - perhaps revolutionise is a better word for it - the economy to restrict economic growth to ensure a more even distribution of wealth and to avert climate change: Prosperity without growth.

How? Jackson groups his 12 solutions into three key areas: building a sustainable macroeconomy; protecting capabilities for flourishing and respecting ecological limits.

Building a sustainable macroeconomy
First, we need to reconfigure how we measure growth. Not as radical as it sounds. The Stern Report was essentially a new way of looking at long term growth taking into account externalities.  Jackson argues that we need to consider caps or rationing and to embed them into our economic modelling.  Second, he argues for a Green New Deal. Third, financial capital needs to be reined in using a tobin tax or tighter regulations. Fourth, a new model of economic accounting is required to take into account economic wellbeing. President Sarkozy of France has argued for this following Joseph Stiglitz and Amarta Sen as well as other eminent economists.

Protecting capabilities for flourishing
Fifth, we need to move towards a much better work life balance - perhaps following France's 35 hour maximum working week. I'm not quite sure how that fits in with Sarkozy's current thinking as he got rid of this on an election platform! Sixth, Jackson argues for a redistribution of wealth on a large scale. His seventh suggestion is a reiteration of measuring wellbeing - he quite likes this one. The eighth suggestion is interesting as it argues for strengthening human and social capital creating resilient communities. This could involve increased participation to protecting our libraries to making sure we fund our museums. Nine is to restrict and reverse consumerist culture. This could mean more funding to the BBC and restrictions on advertising especially for children.

Respecting ecological limits
The tenth suggestion is a cap on on emissions or resources. Nothing too radical here, the EU-ETS and CRC are essentially emissions caps and more are being planned. Perhaps he refering to emissions caps for individuals that Milliband suggested a few years back. Jackson doesn't sell this one very well by referring to war-time rationing or cuban-style living! Suggestion 11 argues for the greening of the taxation system - something that is slowly happening. There is no mention of what happens to tax revenues when people stop using carbon or resources. Finally, suggestion 12 argues for technological transfer and for the protection of biodiversity.

Remember this is a government commission which highlights how mainstream these ideas are becoming and businesses need to be aware that some of these ideas may be policy in the next few years. What I think is interesting is the language or "discourse" of the argument. It doesn't engage business, if anything business causes the problem. The market is a problem and government is the solution. There are three key issues, though.

First, governments have to be elected. David Cameron gets all touchy feely about wellbeing indicators and at the same time suggests that his government will slash spending on, well, museums, the BBC and other things that arguably enhance our wellbeing. Governments, however, do want to make radical changes - they know the seriousness of climate change, but try to tax more on cars or petrol and you have a revolt. They back down. They back down as the public don't want to be told by the "nanny state" what to do.

The second point is that businesses and markets can work more quickly within a boundary dictated by the government. The EU-ETS and the CRC are examples of this. The government basically got businesses on board by saying: "we're going to cap your emissions, but you can do what you like to reduce them or to buy carbon credits". Very little fuss. Personal Carbon Credits could do just that. Let the market dictate within a boundary dictated by the government. Who has a smaller carbon footprint? The less well off. Who has the largest footprint. The middle classes. Let them trade - it sounds nicer than redistribution of wealth. People who consume less are now rewarded. Of course, it's not as simple as that - there are a whole host of questions on how to decide the cap and whether it should be household based or individual based and so on.

The final point goes back to a theme I keep refering to. Get business on board with these ideas and you will have much greater change. It's easier to change 10 multi-nationals corporations than to change the citizens of ten countries.

1 comment:

  1. Tim Jackson has produced lots of interesting work over the years - including work on UK energy futures - to which he made a rather brilliant, if depressing quote for someone in his position - namely that it is always an option for Government to ignore its advisors if they don't like what they say...indications are that they shall continue to do so for some time to come...

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