Sunday 18 October 2009

Book Review on Powerdown by Richard Heinberg

I am doing a book review on Powerdown by Richard Heinberg. Now, before I chose this book, I didn't know that it was one of the bibles of the Transition Town Movement. Essentially, Powerdown makes the case for peak oil and suggests we have four alternatives for the energy descent that looms.  These are: energy resource wars, technological fixes, powerdown - we cut energy use - and lifeboats where we create refuges where we can. Peak oil is a given. There may be debates on whether you include tar sands and the like, but economic if not physical peak oil is accepted even by the oil industry.

Resource wars are not a great idea, obviously, but there is a new "carve up" of resources (by this I include food and water as well as oil and minerals) already going on. What's interesting is the rejection of the technological fix and the focus on powerdown or creating refuges. Essentially, Heinberg argues that it's too late for technological fixes. So we have to powerdown, or at least some of us will do this with others following after the oil has run out. Powerdown is reducing dependency on oil by producing and consuming local food and energy sources, for example, to create resilient communities. It is the ultimate no growth strategy.

Transition Towns looks to be a genuine social movement that is rapidly growing. It's democratic, open and consenual with groups in the country and in the city. Although not mentioned in any of their literature it's very much following Gramsci's 'praxis'  - doing stuff rather than just a campaign group.

I have a few questions: first - how large and diverse is this movement in terms of numbers? Is it predominantly a liberal white middle class movement? At what point does this become a national powerdown (where you have convinced the majority of the population) rather than lifeboats? And, will this more likely and happen more quickly than the technological approach?

Second, where does business fit in this. If energy descent IS the only option, then Tescos and, perhaps, many more need to change their business model fast - very fast. Perhaps there is no room for Tesco! Is there room for Waitrose and the Co-op perhaps?

Third, what happens to tax revenues - presumably they decline in line with the descent and therefore education, health and so on decline too. I am assuming that defence cuts are one-off savings. Where does government fit into this?

Fourth, why is it energy descent as there is an abundance of energy out there: solar, wind, biochar, waste and, dare I say it, nuclear?

Anyone have any answers or comments?

3 comments:

  1. All good questions, Ben, and I look forward to your critique of the book! I've been doing some research on TTs and have published a working paper on their rationale and approach to change, and also a report on the UK TT movement - both on my staff website www.uea.ac.uk/~e175/ - and also a survey of Transition Norwich members... these are the sorts of questions we're asking as academics of social change, too. And we'll be hearing about TTs later in the module too...

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  2. There is an abundance of energy out there. The problem is that it is very low energy density and we are very poor at using it.
    In addition we have a lust for high tech solutions which in reality use more energy than they save or produce.
    Government officials are making assumptions about how money and energy work from the "Pre Peak" era. These assumptions are incorrect, and because they are so ignorant of physics, specifically thermodynamics they are making mistakes that aggravate our energy crisis and guarantee an "energy decent"
    Our US government is attempting to increase spending and complexity just as physics is demanding the opposite. It can only result in collapse. http://www.energystrain.com

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  3. "tar sands". Peak oil has nothing to do with the amount of oil left on the earth (e.g. oil in tar sands). It only has to do with production rate! Once demand exceeds supply shortages will occur. Shortages will cause folks to freeze to death and miss work. Bad stuff!

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